Resale Flat Prices 21 2Q2024 Hdb Flash Estimates
According to the latest flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on July 1, prices of HDB resale flats have continued to rise for the 17th consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2024. The prices have increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, which is faster than the 1.8% increase in the first quarter of 2024. This is also the highest quarterly growth since the fourth quarter of 2022, which saw a 2.3% increase.
The faster growth in resale flat prices can be attributed to a surge in demand for resale flats in the second quarter of 2024. This can be attributed to the reduction in the frequency of Build-to-Order (BTO) sales launches and the Sales of Balance Flat (SBF) exercise, which has been limited to once a year. According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Orange Tee & Tie, the increased housing grants for eligible homebuyers have also made resale flats more affordable and accessible, especially for young couples. She also notes a growing trend of private property homeowners returning to the resale market after completing the mandatory 15-month wait-out period for those who want to downgrade to a resale flat.
Year-to-date, resale flat prices have increased by 4%, surpassing the 2.5% growth recorded in the first half of 2023, but slower than the 5.3% growth in the same period in 2022.
The transaction volume for resale flats has also increased, with a total of 7,208 resale flat transactions recorded by HDB in the second quarter of 2024. This is a 2% increase from the 7,068 transactions in the first quarter of 2024. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, notes that the transaction volume has grown despite factors that were expected to moderate the market, such as the June school holidays and the final BTO launch before the new classification system takes effect in October. He adds that the resilience of the resale market reflects strong demand and continued interest in resale flats.
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Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, mentions that unsuccessful applicants for the February 2024 SBF exercise turned to the resale market, contributing to the higher transaction volume in the second quarter of 2024. He also notes that buyers were showing interest in resale flats in mature estates, particularly those close to a Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) BTO development. This can be seen in the split of transactions, with 40.2% of resale flat sales occurring in mature estates, up from 37.6% in the first quarter of 2024.
In terms of million-dollar HDBs, the flash estimates indicate a 29% increase in transactions surpassing the million-dollar mark, from 183 in the first quarter of 2024 to 236 in the second quarter of 2024. This is the highest number of million-dollar transactions recorded in a single quarter to date, according to Sandrasegeran. The Kallang/Whampoa housing estate saw the highest number of such transactions, possibly due to the higher number of newer flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP), which are more attractive to buyers compared to older properties. The highest transacted million-dollar deal in the second quarter of 2024 was a five-room flat at 96A Henderson Road in City Vue @ Henderson, and a five-room flat at 9B Boon Tiong Road at Tiong Bahru View, both of which were newer flats transacted at $1.588 million each.
Looking ahead, HDB has announced that about 8,500 BTO flats in various locations will be offered in the upcoming October BTO exercise. These flats will be classified under the new system, which will introduce Plus flats with tighter resale conditions, including a 10-year MOP. As there is no BTO exercise in the third quarter of the year, Eugene Lim, KEO of ERA Singapore, expects more buyer activity in the HDB resale market. Sandrasegeran concurs, adding that fewer flats will reach MOP in 2024 compared to last year, further propelling interest in resale flats. Sun from Orange Tee & Tie expects consumer confidence and buying sentiment to remain positive, despite the uncertain interest rate environment, and maintains her projection of 5% resale flat price growth for the whole year. Lee from Huttons Asia has revised his full-year price and volume growth predictions for the resale market, given the higher transaction volume recorded in the first half of 2024. He now estimates a price growth of 8% and a transaction volume of between 26,000 and 28,000.